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13 April 2011
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The Space-Based Infrared System (Sbirs) geosynchronous (GEO) satellites will provide a new generation of IR sensors designed to detect ballistic missile launches—including “dim,” short-range boosts—faster than today’s Defense Support Program (DSP) constellation. A launch success will be a step to help move forward from more than a decade of dismal performance in space programs by the U.S. Air Force and Lockheed Martin. A Sbirs failure would be a stunning turn for the worse for military space programs, which have struggled through quality-control problems, management mishaps and multibillion-dollar overruns. In short, the Air Force’s credibility in delivering precious spaceborne capabilities for the nation is on the line. Less than a month remains for an 11th-hour snag to arise for Sbirs GEO-1, which is poised to lift off from Cape Canaveral. The flight date is set for May 5 on a United Launch Alliance Atlas V, but Col. Roger Teague, the U.S. Air Force’s Sbirs program manager, says May 4 is an option depending on when the space shuttle Endeavour returns from its latest mission. The satellite must also undergo the launch, outgas, shed its protective sensor cover, and point and focus its highly sophisticated infrared payload before military commanders will be at ease. Although Air Force officials say the average cost of a Sbirs satellite is $1.3 billion (without factoring in the large development price), GEO-1 will be by far the most expensive of the series owing to all of the delays incurred while building the first one. So it’s not just the Air Force’s credibility on the line; a massive amount of funding is at stake. Total program cost was estimated to be $15.1 billion for six units; this includes a mix of GEO satellites and separate sensors placed on classified host satellites in highly elliptical orbit (HEO). Air Force officials refused to provide a per-unit cost for the GEO spacecraft, including development fees; the average is based on a 2010 report to Congress is $2.5 billion. However, the cost growth may not be over. Government auditors found in a March report that the Sbirs contract estimated cost at completion has grown about $600 million, more the twice the overage projected last year. Aside from the nearly four-fold cost increase over the program’s life and substantial delay, the failure of the last DSP satellite, made by Northrop Grumman (formerly TRW), to operate properly after its 2007 launch underscores the need for the Air Force to make sure the forthcoming Sbirs flight is successful so that a gap in missile warning coverage can be avoided. For years, successive Strategic Command chiefs have
publicly complained that the missile warning constellation
is too fragile to withstand an in-orbit failure or launch
problem. The primary concern is not only for the immediate
future, but in keeping DSPs functioning long enough for
Sbirs GEO-3 to be lofted and certified for use. Lockheed
Martin is working on that spacecraft, but its production
suffered a gap owing to a lack of government funding. |
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After nearly 15 years of development work, more than
eight years of delays and billions of dollars in cost
overruns, the first of the U.S. Defense Department’s new
early missile warning satellites is finally poised for
launch.